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In this episode, Nathan sits down with Katja Grace, Cofounder and Lead Researcher at AI Impacts. They discuss the survey Katja and team conducted including over 2,700+ AI researchers, the methodology for the research, and the results’ implications for policymakers, the public, and the industry as a whole. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://brave.com/api

LINKS:

- Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI: https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf

-AI Impacts Site: https://aiimpacts.org/about/

-Linus episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdmvtVTZDqE&pp=ygUJbGludXMgbGVl


X/SOCIAL:
@labenz (Nathan)
@KatjaGrace (Katja)
@AIImpacts

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Chapter Timestamps

• Introduction
  • 00:00 - Intro
• The AI Impacts Survey
  • 04:31 - AI Impacts
  • 05:57 - Reference points for AI surveys
  • 07:19 - Who was surveyed?
  • 09:49 - Survey structure
  • 11:45 - Two definitions of AGI
  • 17:26 - The survey experience
• Survey Analysis
  • 20:08 - Fitting a gamma distribution
  • 22:30 - The Gamma Distribution
  • 23:40 - Caveats
  • 27:18 - The left-heavy nature of the distributions
  • 32:13 - Disagreement
  • 33:53 - Confidence
  • 36:01 - Misunderstanding
  • 36:43 - The 2022 and 2023 surveys
• AI Automation Timelines
  • 39:26 - What is the state of AI task automation today?
  • 43:51 - Fine-tune LLM
  • 48:34 - How do these timelines compare to the leading labs?
• Future Impacts and Challenges
  • 56:36 - How good or bad is the long-term future?
  • 59:55 - AI risk survey results
  • 01:02:50 - P-Doom
  • 01:04:44 - The Overton Window
  • 01:06:28 - Interpretability Breakthroughs
  • 01:09:24 - Concerns
  • 01:17:23 - AI Phase Change
  • 01:20:38 - US-China Chip Restrictions
• Conclusion
  • 01:08:08 - Summary
  • 01:11:30 - Future plans for the survey
  • 01:24:50 - Public Opinion
  • 01:27:56 - Outro